FK Zlatibor 1–2 FK Becej: Result & Stats

FK Zlatibor

FT

1 – 2

FK Becej

8/25/2018

Prva Liga · Round 3Stadion Švajcarija (Zlatibor)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

FK Zlatibor47%

×Draw29%

FK Becej24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK ZlatiborExpected goals in this matchFK Becej

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.81

FK Zlatibor

1.25

FK Becej

0.81

FK Zlatibor creates 54% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 18 away

1.23

creates per match

0.83

0.80

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

FK Zlatibor

1.23

FK Becej

0.83

allows per match

FK Zlatibor

0.80

FK Becej

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Zlatibor+0.00on par

FK Becej+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zlatibor ↓

FK Becej →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

FK Zlatibor or draw

76%

FK Zlatibor or FK Becej

71%

Draw or FK Becej

53%

Winning margin

FK Zlatibor wins by 2+

21%

FK Becej wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FK Zlatibor 1+ goals

71%

FK Zlatibor 2+ goals

36%

FK Zlatibor 3+ goals

13%

FK Becej 1+ goals

56%

FK Becej 2+ goals

19%

FK Becej 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

FK Zlatibor (draw refunded)

66%

FK Becej (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Zlatibor at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.80 · 70 matches

FK Becej away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Zlatibor attack 1.23 + FK Becej defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

FK Becej attack 0.83 + FK Zlatibor defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FK Zlatibor scores more

47%

level

29%

FK Becej scores more

24%

FK Zlatibor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FK Zlatibor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff