Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FK Zlatibor vs Bezanija — Prva Liga 2018

FK Zlatibor
FK Zlatibor
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bezanija
Bezanija
5/5/2019Prva LigaPrva Liga · Championship Round - 7Stadion Švajcarija (Zlatibor)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FK Zlatibor49%
×Draw27%
Bezanija24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Zlatibor
1.41
Bezanija
0.90

FK Zlatibor creates 57% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 19 away

creates per match

FK Zlatibor
1.23
Bezanija
1.00

allows per match

FK Zlatibor
0.80
Bezanija
1.58

finishing

FK Zlatibor+0.00on par
Bezanija+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zlatibor ↓

Bezanija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FK Zlatibor or draw
76%
FK Zlatibor or Bezanija
73%
Draw or Bezanija
51%

Winning margin

FK Zlatibor wins by 2+
24%
Bezanija wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FK Zlatibor 1+ goals
76%
FK Zlatibor 2+ goals
41%
FK Zlatibor 3+ goals
17%
Bezanija 1+ goals
59%
Bezanija 2+ goals
23%
Bezanija 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FK Zlatibor (draw refunded)
67%
Bezanija (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Zlatibor at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.80 · 70 matches

Bezanija away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Zlatibor attack 1.23 + Bezanija defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.41

Bezanija attack 1.00 + FK Zlatibor defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FK Zlatibor scores more
49%
level
27%
Bezanija scores more
24%

FK Zlatibor at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FK Zlatibor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Zlatibor vs Bezanija

FK Zlatibor beat Bezanija 1-0 in Prva Liga on May 5, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Švajcarija (Zlatibor).