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FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Wigry Suwałki — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Wigry Suwałki
Wigry Suwałki
1/24/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius47%
×Draw23%
Wigry Suwałki30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.82
Wigry Suwałki
1.40

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 30% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.14
Wigry Suwałki
1.67

allows per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.14
Wigry Suwałki
1.50

finishing

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par
Wigry Suwałki+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zalgiris Vilnius ↓

Wigry Suwałki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or draw
70%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius or Wigry Suwałki
77%
Draw or Wigry Suwałki
53%

Winning margin

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+
26%
Wigry Suwałki wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals
84%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals
54%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals
27%
Wigry Suwałki 1+ goals
75%
Wigry Suwałki 2+ goals
41%
Wigry Suwałki 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)
61%
Wigry Suwałki (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Wigry Suwałki away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 2.14 + Wigry Suwałki defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.82

Wigry Suwałki attack 1.67 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more
47%
level
23%
Wigry Suwałki scores more
30%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Wigry Suwałki

Wigry Suwałki beat FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 24, 2026.