FK Zalgiris Vilnius 0–0 Suduva Marijampole

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

AET

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Suduva Marijampole

A. Kaluđerović 91'

S. Kerla 105+1'

J. Tadic 93'

10/17/2020

Cup · Semi-finalsVilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius38%

×Draw23%

Suduva Marijampole40%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Zalgiris VilniusExpected goals in this matchSuduva Marijampole

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.74

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

1.70

Suduva Marijampole

1.74

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

3.29

creates per match

2.78

0.71

allows per match

0.11

creates per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

3.29

Suduva Marijampole

2.78

allows per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

0.71

Suduva Marijampole

0.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Suduva Marijampole+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zalgiris Vilnius ↓

Suduva Marijampole →

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–05%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or draw

60%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or Suduva Marijampole

77%

Draw or Suduva Marijampole

62%

Winning margin

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+

19%

Suduva Marijampole wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals

82%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals

51%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals

24%

Suduva Marijampole 1+ goals

82%

Suduva Marijampole 2+ goals

52%

Suduva Marijampole 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)

49%

Suduva Marijampole (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home — creates 3.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Suduva Marijampole away — creates 2.78, concedes 0.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 3.29 + Suduva Marijampole defence 0.11 → ÷2 → 1.70

Suduva Marijampole attack 2.78 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more

38%

level

23%

Suduva Marijampole scores more

40%

Suduva Marijampole at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Suduva Marijampole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

M. Topcagic

46'

E. Jankauskas← A. Švrljuga

46'

S. Kerla← A. Jankauskas

46'

T. Salamon← V. Slavickas

46'

N. Gorobsov← G. Matulevičius

50'

I. Tatomirovic

71'

J. Tadic← M. Topcagić

72'

P. Leimonas

77'

N. Ljubisavljevic

79'

M. Kuklys← F. Kyeremeh

84'

N. Gorobsov

91'

Renan Oliveira← G. Kļuškins

91'

93'

95'

104'

105+1'

105+1'

106'

106'

K. Kamenar← D. Šimkus

108'

V. Sabala

110'

M. Karamarko← H. Vidémont

117'

Suduva

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: A. Baga

79'▲M. Kuklys←▼F. Kyeremeh

106'▲K. Kamenar←▼D. Šimkus

110'▲M. Karamarko←▼H. Vidémont

FK Zalgiris Vilnius substitutes

KuklysKamenarKaramarkoGertmonasBolhaBurbaVareika

Manager: S. Širmelis

46'▲E. Jankauskas←▼A. Švrljuga

46'▲S. Kerla←▼A. Jankauskas

46'▲T. Salamon←▼V. Slavickas

46'▲N. Gorobsov←▼G. Matulevičius

71'▲J. Tadic←▼M. Topcagić

91'▲Renan Oliveira←▼G. Kļuškins

Suduva Marijampole substitutes

JankauskasKerlaSalamonGorobsovTadicOliveiraŽivanovićHladíkPlūkas

Cup: FK Zalgiris Vilnius 0–0 Suduva Marijampole

FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Suduva Marijampole drew 0-0 in Cup on October 17, 2020.

Goals: A. Kaluđerović (91'), J. Tadic (93'), S. Kerla (105+1').

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas in Vilnius.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole — Cup 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Cup: FK Zalgiris Vilnius 0–0 Suduva Marijampole