FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3–0 Stumbras: Result & Stats

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

FT

3 – 0

Stumbras

10/19/2019

A Lyga · Round 27Vilniaus LFF stadionas (Vilnius)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius73%

×Draw18%

Stumbras10%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Zalgiris VilniusExpected goals in this matchStumbras

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.68

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

2.23

Stumbras

0.68

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 228% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 14 away

2.17

creates per match

0.43

0.93

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

2.17

Stumbras

0.43

allows per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

0.93

Stumbras

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Stumbras+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zalgiris Vilnius ↓

Stumbras →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or draw

90%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or Stumbras

82%

Draw or Stumbras

27%

Winning margin

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+

48%

Stumbras wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals

89%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals

65%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals

38%

Stumbras 1+ goals

49%

Stumbras 2+ goals

15%

Stumbras 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)

88%

Stumbras (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.93 · 132 matches

Stumbras away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 2.17 + Stumbras defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.23

Stumbras attack 0.43 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more

73%

level

18%

Stumbras scores more

10%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff