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FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Šiauliai — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Šiauliai
Šiauliai
1/31/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius62%
×Draw19%
Šiauliai19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.32
Šiauliai
1.19

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 95% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.14
Šiauliai
1.25

allows per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.14
Šiauliai
2.50

finishing

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par
Šiauliai+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zalgiris Vilnius ↓

Šiauliai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or draw
81%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius or Šiauliai
81%
Draw or Šiauliai
38%

Winning margin

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+
40%
Šiauliai wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals
90%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals
67%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals
40%
Šiauliai 1+ goals
70%
Šiauliai 2+ goals
33%
Šiauliai 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)
77%
Šiauliai (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Šiauliai away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 2.14 + Šiauliai defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.32

Šiauliai attack 1.25 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more
62%
level
19%
Šiauliai scores more
19%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: FK Zalgiris Vilnius 4–2 Šiauliai

FK Zalgiris Vilnius beat Šiauliai 4-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 31, 2026.