FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2–4 Panevėžys: Result & Stats

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Panevėžys

11/3/2024

A Lyga · Round 35Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius54%

×Draw23%

Panevėžys23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Zalgiris VilniusExpected goals in this matchPanevėžys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.08

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

1.79

Panevėžys

1.08

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 66% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 127 away

2.14

creates per match

1.29

0.88

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

2.14

Panevėžys

1.29

allows per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

0.88

Panevėžys

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Panevėžys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zalgiris Vilnius ↓

Panevėžys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or draw

77%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or Panevėžys

77%

Draw or Panevėžys

46%

Winning margin

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+

30%

Panevėžys wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals

83%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals

53%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals

26%

Panevėžys 1+ goals

66%

Panevėžys 2+ goals

29%

Panevėžys 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)

70%

Panevėžys (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.88 · 127 matches

Panevėžys away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 2.14 + Panevėžys defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.79

Panevėžys attack 1.29 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more

54%

level

23%

Panevėžys scores more

23%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff