FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2–1 Panevėžys: Result & Stats

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Panevėžys

J. Čađenović 56' (OG)

A. Hodžić 39'

N. Kacharava 90+3'

5/6/2024

Cup · Round of 32Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius41%

×Draw21%

Panevėžys38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Zalgiris VilniusExpected goals in this matchPanevėžys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.92

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

2.02

Panevėžys

1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 17 away

3.29

creates per match

3.12

0.71

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

3.29

Panevėžys

3.12

allows per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

0.71

Panevėžys

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Panevėžys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zalgiris Vilnius ↓

Panevėžys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or draw

62%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or Panevėžys

79%

Draw or Panevėžys

59%

Winning margin

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+

23%

Panevėžys wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals

87%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals

60%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals

33%

Panevėžys 1+ goals

85%

Panevėžys 2+ goals

57%

Panevėžys 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)

52%

Panevėžys (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home — creates 3.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Panevėžys away — creates 3.12, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 3.29 + Panevėžys defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 2.02

Panevėžys attack 3.12 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more

41%

level

21%

Panevėžys scores more

38%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

A. Hodžić

56'

J. ČađenovićOwn goal

61'

A. Karvatskyi← S. Gussiås

61'

Lucas de Vega← M. Remeikis

61'

N. Bosančić← K. Asamoah

61'

N. Kacharava← J. Sarpong

61'

N. Lukšys← F. Palacios

87'

N. Petković← A. Hodžić

87'

A. Fofana← L. Antal

90+3'

N. Kacharava

FK

Panevėžys

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Hodžić

Manager: V. Cheburin

87'▲N. Petković←▼A. Hodžić

87'▲A. Fofana←▼L. Antal

FK Zalgiris Vilnius substitutes

PetkovićFofanaMarkovićAliukonisFernandesMazurMikulenasMihajlovićŠetkusMatyžonokJansonas

Manager: G. Lettieri

61'▲A. Karvatskyi←▼S. Gussiås

61'▲Lucas de Vega←▼M. Remeikis

61'▲N. Bosančić←▼K. Asamoah

61'▲N. Kacharava←▼J. Sarpong

61'▲N. Lukšys←▼F. Palacios

Panevėžys substitutes

KarvatskyiVegaBosančićKacharavaLukšysBukelČerniauskasVenckusKlimavičiusMbo