FK Zalgiris Vilnius 6–0 Nevėžis: Result & Stats

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

FT

6 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Nevėžis

J. Tadic 87'

H. Vidémont 75', 25', 5'

T. Kiš 73'

J. Sylvestr 34'

10/14/2021

A Lyga · Round 23Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius77%

×Draw15%

Nevėžis8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Zalgiris VilniusExpected goals in this matchNevėžis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

0.69

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

2.50

Nevėžis

0.69

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 262% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 18 away

2.17

creates per match

0.44

0.93

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

2.17

Nevėžis

0.44

allows per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

0.93

Nevėžis

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Nevėžis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zalgiris Vilnius ↓

Nevėžis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–17%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or draw

92%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or Nevėžis

85%

Draw or Nevėžis

23%

Winning margin

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+

54%

Nevėžis wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals

92%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals

71%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals

45%

Nevėžis 1+ goals

50%

Nevėžis 2+ goals

15%

Nevėžis 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)

90%

Nevėžis (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.93 · 132 matches

Nevėžis away — creates 0.44, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 2.17 + Nevėžis defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.50

Nevėžis attack 0.44 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more

77%

level

15%

Nevėžis scores more

8%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

23'

25'

34'

70'

J. Tadic← J. Sylvestr

70'

H. Timite← L. Berednikovas

73'

M. Burba← R. Župerka

73'

T. Kiš

75'

H. Vidémont

77'

I. Tatomirović← M. Pavelić

81'

E. Kugys← D. Dmitruk

81'

A. Gėgžna← P. Eletu

81'

A. Lukoševičius← J. Kasparavičius

86'

O. Adams← F. Kyeremeh

86'

V. Piliukaitis← H. Vidémont

87'

J. Tadic

FK

Nevėžis

34

99

4

18

20

▼

Eletu

35

▼

Župerka

77

Skibiniau

27

Oboleviči

7

▼

Kasparavi

13

▼

Beredniko

19

▼

Dmitruk

25

Duka

3

▼

7

23

26

88

11

⚽3

▼

Vidémont

22

Verbickas

77

▼

Kyeremeh

12

⚽

▼

Sylvestr

10

⚽

Kiš

Manager: V. Cheburin

70'▲J. Tadic←▼J. Sylvestr

77'▲I. Tatomirović←▼M. Pavelić

86'▲O. Adams←▼F. Kyeremeh

86'▲V. Piliukaitis←▼H. Vidémont

FK Zalgiris Vilnius substitutes

27Tadic15Tatomirović18Adams19Piliukaitis1Gertmonas13Mikoliūnas14Uzėla

Manager: D. Gvildys

70'▲H. Timite←▼L. Berednikovas

73'▲M. Burba←▼R. Župerka

81'▲E. Kugys←▼D. Dmitruk

81'▲A. Gėgžna←▼P. Eletu

81'▲A. Lukoševičius←▼J. Kasparavičius

Nevėžis substitutes

17Timite23Burba9Kugys10Gėgžna22Lukoševičius1Makauskas91Butkus