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FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Malmo FF — UEFA Champions League 2026

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Malmo FF
Malmo FF
7/19/2022UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · 2nd Qualifying RoundVilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius46%
×Draw25%
Malmo FF29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.53
Malmo FF
1.16

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 32% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 16 away

creates per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.43
Malmo FF
1.31

allows per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.00
Malmo FF
1.63

finishing

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par
Malmo FF+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zalgiris Vilnius ↓

Malmo FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or draw
71%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius or Malmo FF
75%
Draw or Malmo FF
54%

Winning margin

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+
23%
Malmo FF wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals
78%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals
45%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals
20%
Malmo FF 1+ goals
69%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
32%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)
61%
Malmo FF (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Malmo FF away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 1.43 + Malmo FF defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.53

Malmo FF attack 1.31 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more
46%
level
25%
Malmo FF scores more
29%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Malmo FF

FK Zalgiris Vilnius beat Malmo FF 1-0 in UEFA Champions League on July 19, 2022.

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas in Vilnius.