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FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen — A Lyga 2026

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Preview
14:00
Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
10/18/2026A LygaA Lyga · Round 33LFF stadionas
Big match
51%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
model favours
51%24%25%

Hegelmann Litauen score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius51%
×Draw24%
Hegelmann Litauen25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.72
Hegelmann Litauen
1.13

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 52% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 99 away

creates per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.14
Hegelmann Litauen
1.38

allows per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.88
Hegelmann Litauen
1.29

finishing

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par
Hegelmann Litauen+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zalgiris Vilnius ↓

Hegelmann Litauen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or draw
75%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius or Hegelmann Litauen
76%
Draw or Hegelmann Litauen
49%

Winning margin

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+
28%
Hegelmann Litauen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals
82%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals
51%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals
25%
Hegelmann Litauen 1+ goals
68%
Hegelmann Litauen 2+ goals
31%
Hegelmann Litauen 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)
67%
Hegelmann Litauen (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.88 · 127 matches

Hegelmann Litauen away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 2.14 + Hegelmann Litauen defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.72

Hegelmann Litauen attack 1.38 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more
51%
level
24%
Hegelmann Litauen scores more
25%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FK Zalgiris Vilnius have won 3 in a row
  • FK Zalgiris Vilnius score first in only 29% of matches
  • Hegelmann Litauen win just 8% of their away games
  • FK Zalgiris Vilnius win 70% of their home games
  • 20% of Hegelmann Litauen’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • 31% of FK Zalgiris Vilnius’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Vilnius
WWW
Litauen
LDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen — Match Preview

FK Zalgiris Vilnius face Hegelmann Litauen on October 18, 2026 in this A Lyga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius host Hegelmann Litauen at LFF stadionas.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.