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FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Dinamo Tbilisi — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FT
0 – 0
Dinamo Tbilisi
Dinamo Tbilisi
2/1/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Titanic Sports Center - Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius74%
×Draw16%
Dinamo Tbilisi10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.43
Dinamo Tbilisi
0.76

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 220% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.46
Dinamo Tbilisi
0.60

allows per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.92
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.40

finishing

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par
Dinamo Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zalgiris Vilnius ↓

Dinamo Tbilisi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or draw
90%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius or Dinamo Tbilisi
84%
Draw or Dinamo Tbilisi
26%

Winning margin

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+
51%
Dinamo Tbilisi wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals
91%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals
69%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals
43%
Dinamo Tbilisi 1+ goals
53%
Dinamo Tbilisi 2+ goals
18%
Dinamo Tbilisi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)
88%
Dinamo Tbilisi (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Dinamo Tbilisi away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 2.46 + Dinamo Tbilisi defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.43

Dinamo Tbilisi attack 0.60 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more
74%
level
16%
Dinamo Tbilisi scores more
10%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Dinamo Tbilisi

FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Dinamo Tbilisi drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 1, 2023.

The match was played at Titanic Sports Center - Field 1 in Belek.