FK Zalgiris Vilnius 5–1 Dainava: Result & Stats

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Dainava

H. Vidémont 65'

F. Kyeremeh 64', 28'

M. Kuklys 62'

O. Onazi 15'

S. Hamulic 77'

4/30/2021

A Lyga · Round 11Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius59%

×Draw23%

Dainava18%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Zalgiris VilniusExpected goals in this matchDainava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.86

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

1.78

Dainava

0.86

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 107% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 72 away

2.17

creates per match

0.79

0.93

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

2.17

Dainava

0.79

allows per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

0.93

Dainava

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Dainava+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zalgiris Vilnius ↓

Dainava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or draw

82%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or Dainava

77%

Draw or Dainava

41%

Winning margin

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+

34%

Dainava wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals

83%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals

53%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals

26%

Dainava 1+ goals

58%

Dainava 2+ goals

21%

Dainava 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)

77%

Dainava (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.93 · 132 matches

Dainava away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.40 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 2.17 + Dainava defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.78

Dainava attack 0.79 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more

59%

level

23%

Dainava scores more

18%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

V. Luksa

15'

O. Onazi

28'

F. Kyeremeh

29'

G. Zabita

41'

I. Tatomirović← N. Ljubisavljević

44'

M. Karamarko

46'

D. Tsallagov← T. Vitukynas

50'

M. Kuklys

59'

E. Diaw

62'

M. Kuklys

64'

T. Kiš← J. Tadic

64'

64'

65'

77'

80'

80'

82'

J. Sylvestr← H. Vidémont

82'

V. Piliukaitis← O. Onazi

82'

O. Lukošiūnas← C. Tchamba

FK

Dainava

37

89

4

21

11

▼

Vitukynas

6

Banevičiu

25

▼

Terzi

8

Golubicka

29

Zabita

99

⚽

Hamulic

98

▼

1

31

7

23

26

▼

Ljubisavl

88

⚽

Kuklys

20

⚽

▼

Onazi

11

⚽

▼

Vidémont

22

Verbickas

77

⚽2

Kyeremeh

27

▼

Tadic

Manager: V. Cheburin

41'▲I. Tatomirović←▼N. Ljubisavljević

64'▲T. Kiš←▼J. Tadic

82'▲J. Sylvestr←▼H. Vidémont

82'▲V. Piliukaitis←▼O. Onazi

FK Zalgiris Vilnius substitutes

15Tatomirović10Kiš12Sylvestr19Piliukaitis8Gamakov13Mikoliūnas29Menčiūnas96Jarusevičius17Vareika

Manager: T. Ražanauskas

46'▲D. Tsallagov←▼T. Vitukynas

64'▲D. Makeev←▼Y. Terzi

82'▲O. Lukošiūnas←▼C. Tchamba

Dainava substitutes

2Tsallagov54Makeev30Lukošiūnas12Kalėda15Marčiukaitis22Bražinskas35Zelmanis

A Lyga: FK Zalgiris Vilnius 5–1 Dainava

FK Zalgiris Vilnius beat Dainava 5-1 in A Lyga on April 30, 2021.

Goals: O. Onazi (15'), F. Kyeremeh (28', 64'), M. Kuklys (62'), H. Vidémont (65'), S. Hamulic (77').

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas in Vilnius.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Dainava — A Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

A Lyga: FK Zalgiris Vilnius 5–1 Dainava