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Dainava vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius — Cup 2020

Dainava
Dainava
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilniusadvanced
5/6/2025CupCup · Round of 32Alytaus m. centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dainava8%
×Draw15%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dainava
0.69
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.50

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 262% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Dainava
0.50
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.50

allows per match

Dainava
2.50
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.88

finishing

Dainava+0.00on par
FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dainava ↓

FK Zalgiris Vilnius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–213%
0–311%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dainava or draw
23%
Dainava or FK Zalgiris Vilnius
85%
Draw or FK Zalgiris Vilnius
92%

Winning margin

Dainava wins by 2+
2%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+
54%

Team goals

Dainava 1+ goals
50%
Dainava 2+ goals
15%
Dainava 3+ goals
3%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals
92%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals
71%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Dainava (draw refunded)
10%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dainava at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dainava attack 0.50 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.69

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 2.50 + Dainava defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Dainava scores more
8%
level
15%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more
77%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dainava vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius

FK Zalgiris Vilnius beat Dainava 6-0 in Cup on May 6, 2025.

The match was played at Alytaus m. centrinis stadionas in Alytus.