FK Zalgiris Vilnius 5–0 Atlantas: Result & Stats

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Atlantas

H. Vidémont 73'

T. Kiš 56', 34'

G. Jarusevičius 44', 6'

11/22/2019

A Lyga · Championship Round - 4Vilniaus LFF stadionas (Vilnius)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius72%

×Draw17%

Atlantas11%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Zalgiris VilniusExpected goals in this matchAtlantas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.47

0.87

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

2.47

Atlantas

0.87

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 184% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 17 away

2.18

creates per match

0.82

0.92

allows per match

2.76

creates per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

2.18

Atlantas

0.82

allows per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

0.92

Atlantas

2.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Atlantas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zalgiris Vilnius ↓

Atlantas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or draw

89%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or Atlantas

83%

Draw or Atlantas

28%

Winning margin

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+

50%

Atlantas wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals

91%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals

70%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals

44%

Atlantas 1+ goals

58%

Atlantas 2+ goals

22%

Atlantas 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)

86%

Atlantas (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.92 · 142 matches

Atlantas away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 2.18 + Atlantas defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.47

Atlantas attack 0.82 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more

72%

level

17%

Atlantas scores more

11%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

34'

44'

46'

46'

D. Dobrecovs← D.I. Petkov

56'

T. Kiš

63'

Pau Morer← L. Antal

72'

R. Baravykas← G. Jarusevičius

73'

H. Vidémont

76'

V. Lukša← T. Vitukynas

81'

G. Freidgeimas← K. Bolha

FK

Atlantas

1

Paukštė

5

Činikas

6

Bartkus

16

▼

Žutić

28

Gvazdinsk

4

Špiegis

27

▼

Petkov

23

▼

19

13

9

12

5

19

▼

Bolha

13

Mikoliūna

8

▼

Antal

7

Pérez

9

⚽

Vidémont

16

Tomić

14

Uzėla

10

⚽2

Kiš

96

⚽2

▼

Jarusevič

Manager: João Martins

63'▲Pau Morer←▼L. Antal

72'▲R. Baravykas←▼G. Jarusevičius

81'▲G. Freidgeimas←▼K. Bolha

FK Zalgiris Vilnius substitutes

22Morer23Baravykas3Freidgeimas1Vitkauskas6Cordoș11Filipov33Šimkus

Manager: D. Navikas

46'▲M. Cocîrlă←▼D. Žutić

46'▲D. Dobrecovs←▼D.I. Petkov

76'▲V. Lukša←▼T. Vitukynas

Atlantas substitutes

11Cocîrlă20Dobrecovs8Lukša12Kunchev77Dunić