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FK Vozdovac vs Radnicki 1923 — Super Liga 2026

FK Vozdovac
FK Vozdovac
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Radnicki 1923
Radnicki 1923
4/21/2023Super LigaSuper Liga · Championship Round - 1Stadion Event Place

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

FK Vozdovac45%
×Draw26%
Radnicki 192329%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Vozdovac
1.49
Radnicki 1923
1.15

FK Vozdovac creates 30% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 94 away

creates per match

FK Vozdovac
1.46
Radnicki 1923
1.15

allows per match

FK Vozdovac
1.15
Radnicki 1923
1.52

finishing

FK Vozdovac+0.00on par
Radnicki 1923+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Vozdovac ↓

Radnicki 1923 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FK Vozdovac or draw
71%
FK Vozdovac or Radnicki 1923
74%
Draw or Radnicki 1923
55%

Winning margin

FK Vozdovac wins by 2+
22%
Radnicki 1923 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FK Vozdovac 1+ goals
77%
FK Vozdovac 2+ goals
44%
FK Vozdovac 3+ goals
19%
Radnicki 1923 1+ goals
68%
Radnicki 1923 2+ goals
32%
Radnicki 1923 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FK Vozdovac (draw refunded)
61%
Radnicki 1923 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Vozdovac at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.15 · 107 matches

Radnicki 1923 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.52 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Vozdovac attack 1.46 + Radnicki 1923 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.49

Radnicki 1923 attack 1.15 + FK Vozdovac defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FK Vozdovac scores more
45%
level
26%
Radnicki 1923 scores more
29%

FK Vozdovac at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FK Vozdovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: FK Vozdovac 2–1 Radnicki 1923

FK Vozdovac beat Radnicki 1923 2-1 in Super Liga on April 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Event Place in Beograd.