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FK Vozdovac vs RAD — Super Liga 2018

FK Vozdovac
FK Vozdovac
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
RAD
RAD
10/30/2019Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 14Stadion Event Place

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

FK Vozdovac55%
×Draw25%
RAD20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Vozdovac
1.59
RAD
0.85

FK Vozdovac creates 87% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 53 away

creates per match

FK Vozdovac
1.46
RAD
0.55

allows per match

FK Vozdovac
1.15
RAD
1.72

finishing

FK Vozdovac+0.00on par
RAD+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Vozdovac ↓

RAD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FK Vozdovac or draw
80%
FK Vozdovac or RAD
75%
Draw or RAD
45%

Winning margin

FK Vozdovac wins by 2+
29%
RAD wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FK Vozdovac 1+ goals
80%
FK Vozdovac 2+ goals
47%
FK Vozdovac 3+ goals
21%
RAD 1+ goals
57%
RAD 2+ goals
21%
RAD 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FK Vozdovac (draw refunded)
73%
RAD (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Vozdovac at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.15 · 107 matches

RAD away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.72 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Vozdovac attack 1.46 + RAD defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.59

RAD attack 0.55 + FK Vozdovac defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FK Vozdovac scores more
55%
level
25%
RAD scores more
20%

FK Vozdovac at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FK Vozdovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: FK Vozdovac 2–1 RAD

FK Vozdovac beat RAD 2-1 in Super Liga on October 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Event Place in Beograd.