FK Vozdovac 2–1 Proleter Novi SAD: Result & Stats

FK Vozdovac

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Proleter Novi SAD

I. Milosavljević 50', 23'

A. Kaluđerović 49'

7/23/2021

Super Liga · Round 2Stadion Event Place

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

FK Vozdovac49%

×Draw26%

Proleter Novi SAD25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK VozdovacExpected goals in this matchProleter Novi SAD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.98

FK Vozdovac

1.51

Proleter Novi SAD

0.98

FK Vozdovac creates 54% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 72 away

1.46

creates per match

0.81

1.15

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

FK Vozdovac

1.46

Proleter Novi SAD

0.81

allows per match

FK Vozdovac

1.15

Proleter Novi SAD

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Vozdovac+0.00on par

Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Vozdovac ↓

Proleter Novi SAD →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FK Vozdovac or draw

75%

FK Vozdovac or Proleter Novi SAD

74%

Draw or Proleter Novi SAD

51%

Winning margin

FK Vozdovac wins by 2+

25%

Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FK Vozdovac 1+ goals

78%

FK Vozdovac 2+ goals

44%

FK Vozdovac 3+ goals

19%

Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals

62%

Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals

26%

Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FK Vozdovac (draw refunded)

67%

Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Vozdovac at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.15 · 107 matches

Proleter Novi SAD away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.56 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Vozdovac attack 1.46 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.51

Proleter Novi SAD attack 0.81 + FK Vozdovac defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FK Vozdovac scores more

49%

level

26%

Proleter Novi SAD scores more

25%

FK Vozdovac at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FK Vozdovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

23'

28'

49'

50'

65'

V. Živojinović← O. Mitrović

68'

M. Stojčev← N. Vujnović

68'

D. Stoisavljević← M. Pantović

76'

E. Ajdinović← I. Milosavljević

80'

S. Tomović← A. Kaluđerović

80'

S. Stojanović← Z. Danoski

86'

Đorđe Bašanović

89'

Marko Mijailović

89'

Miloje Preković

90+1'

F. Stanisavljević← N. Milojević

90+1'

N. Cvetković← S. Purtić

FK4-2-3-1

Proleter4-4-2

9

Ortíz

99

⚽

▼

Kaluđerov

22

Miladinov

4

Marjanovi

13

▼

Mitrović

10

▼

27

20

8

5

91

1

14

44

15

5

8

⚽2

▼

Milosavlj

24

▼

Milojević

35

Ivezić

25

▼

Purtić

17

▼

Pantović

19

▼

Vujnović

Manager: P. Rogan

68'▲M. Stojčev←▼N. Vujnović

68'▲D. Stoisavljević←▼M. Pantović

76'▲E. Ajdinović←▼I. Milosavljević

90+1'▲F. Stanisavljević←▼N. Milojević

90+1'▲N. Cvetković←▼S. Purtić

FK Vozdovac substitutes

9Stojčev23Stoisavljević21Ajdinović6Stanisavljević20Cvetković3Bogdanović11Perošević26Jaraković27Avrić31Krunić7Cvetićanin

Manager: B. Žigić

65'▲V. Živojinović←▼O. Mitrović

80'▲S. Tomović←▼A. Kaluđerović

80'▲S. Stojanović←▼Z. Danoski

Proleter Novi SAD substitutes

45Živojinović7Tomović51Stojanović11Golubović15Joković16Milenković23Janković28Mihajlović73Nović77Kojić88Mladenović