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FK Vozdovac vs Dinamo Vranje — Super Liga 2018

FK Vozdovac
FK Vozdovac
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Vranje
Dinamo Vranje
8/18/2018Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 5Stadion Event Place (Beograd)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FK Vozdovac62%
×Draw22%
Dinamo Vranje15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Vozdovac
1.81
Dinamo Vranje
0.76

FK Vozdovac creates 138% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 19 away

creates per match

FK Vozdovac
1.46
Dinamo Vranje
0.37

allows per match

FK Vozdovac
1.15
Dinamo Vranje
2.16

finishing

FK Vozdovac+0.00on par
Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Vozdovac ↓

Dinamo Vranje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FK Vozdovac or draw
85%
FK Vozdovac or Dinamo Vranje
78%
Draw or Dinamo Vranje
38%

Winning margin

FK Vozdovac wins by 2+
36%
Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FK Vozdovac 1+ goals
84%
FK Vozdovac 2+ goals
54%
FK Vozdovac 3+ goals
27%
Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals
53%
Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals
18%
Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FK Vozdovac (draw refunded)
80%
Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Vozdovac at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.15 · 107 matches

Dinamo Vranje away — creates 0.37, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Vozdovac attack 1.46 + Dinamo Vranje defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.81

Dinamo Vranje attack 0.37 + FK Vozdovac defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

FK Vozdovac scores more
62%
level
22%
Dinamo Vranje scores more
15%

FK Vozdovac at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "FK Vozdovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: FK Vozdovac 2–0 Dinamo Vranje

FK Vozdovac beat Dinamo Vranje 2-0 in Super Liga on August 18, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Event Place (Beograd).