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FK Vozdovac vs Backa — Super Liga 2018

FK Vozdovac
FK Vozdovac
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Backa
Backa
7/21/2018Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 1Stadion Event Place (Beograd)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

FK Vozdovac60%
×Draw23%
Backa17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Vozdovac
1.78
Backa
0.82

FK Vozdovac creates 117% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 38 away

creates per match

FK Vozdovac
1.46
Backa
0.50

allows per match

FK Vozdovac
1.15
Backa
2.11

finishing

FK Vozdovac+0.00on par
Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Vozdovac ↓

Backa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FK Vozdovac or draw
83%
FK Vozdovac or Backa
77%
Draw or Backa
40%

Winning margin

FK Vozdovac wins by 2+
34%
Backa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

FK Vozdovac 1+ goals
83%
FK Vozdovac 2+ goals
53%
FK Vozdovac 3+ goals
26%
Backa 1+ goals
56%
Backa 2+ goals
20%
Backa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FK Vozdovac (draw refunded)
78%
Backa (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Vozdovac at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.15 · 107 matches

Backa away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.11 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Vozdovac attack 1.46 + Backa defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.78

Backa attack 0.50 + FK Vozdovac defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

FK Vozdovac scores more
60%
level
23%
Backa scores more
17%

FK Vozdovac at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "FK Vozdovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Vozdovac vs Backa

FK Vozdovac beat Backa 1-0 in Super Liga on July 21, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Event Place (Beograd).