Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FK Ventspils vs Riga — Virsliga 2019

FK Ventspils
FK Ventspils
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Riga
Riga
3/13/2021VirsligaVirsliga · Round 1Ventspils 2. pamatskolas Stadionā

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

FK Ventspils28%
×Draw25%
Riga47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Ventspils
1.19
Riga
1.62

Riga creates 36% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 116 away

creates per match

FK Ventspils
1.62
Riga
2.27

allows per match

FK Ventspils
0.97
Riga
0.75

finishing

FK Ventspils+0.00on par
Riga+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Ventspils ↓

Riga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FK Ventspils or draw
53%
FK Ventspils or Riga
75%
Draw or Riga
72%

Winning margin

FK Ventspils wins by 2+
11%
Riga wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

FK Ventspils 1+ goals
70%
FK Ventspils 2+ goals
33%
FK Ventspils 3+ goals
12%
Riga 1+ goals
80%
Riga 2+ goals
48%
Riga 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

FK Ventspils (draw refunded)
37%
Riga (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Ventspils at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.97 · 34 matches

Riga away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.75 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Ventspils attack 1.62 + Riga defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.19

Riga attack 2.27 + FK Ventspils defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FK Ventspils scores more
28%
level
25%
Riga scores more
47%

Riga at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Riga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Ventspils vs Riga

Riga beat FK Ventspils 3-0 in Virsliga on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Ventspils 2. pamatskolas Stadionā in Ventspils.