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FK Ventspils vs FK Liepaja — Virsliga 2019

FK Ventspils
FK Ventspils
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
11/9/2019VirsligaVirsliga · Round 36Olimpiska centra Ventspils Stadiona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

FK Ventspils45%
×Draw25%
FK Liepaja30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Ventspils
1.54
FK Liepaja
1.21

FK Ventspils creates 27% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 115 away

creates per match

FK Ventspils
1.62
FK Liepaja
1.44

allows per match

FK Ventspils
0.97
FK Liepaja
1.47

finishing

FK Ventspils+0.00on par
FK Liepaja+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Ventspils ↓

FK Liepaja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FK Ventspils or draw
70%
FK Ventspils or FK Liepaja
75%
Draw or FK Liepaja
55%

Winning margin

FK Ventspils wins by 2+
23%
FK Liepaja wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FK Ventspils 1+ goals
79%
FK Ventspils 2+ goals
45%
FK Ventspils 3+ goals
20%
FK Liepaja 1+ goals
70%
FK Liepaja 2+ goals
34%
FK Liepaja 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FK Ventspils (draw refunded)
60%
FK Liepaja (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Ventspils at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.97 · 34 matches

FK Liepaja away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.47 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Ventspils attack 1.62 + FK Liepaja defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.54

FK Liepaja attack 1.44 + FK Ventspils defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FK Ventspils scores more
45%
level
25%
FK Liepaja scores more
30%

FK Ventspils at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FK Ventspils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Virsliga: FK Ventspils 0–1 FK Liepaja

FK Liepaja beat FK Ventspils 1-0 in Virsliga on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Olimpiska centra Ventspils Stadiona.