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FK Liepaja vs FK Ventspils — Virsliga 2019

FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
CANC
10:00
FK Ventspils
FK Ventspils
10/23/2021VirsligaVirsliga · Round 26Stadions Daugava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

FK Liepaja43%
×Draw25%
FK Ventspils32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Liepaja
1.52
FK Ventspils
1.29

FK Liepaja creates 18% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 31 away

creates per match

FK Liepaja
1.61
FK Ventspils
1.23

allows per match

FK Liepaja
1.36
FK Ventspils
1.42

finishing

FK Liepaja+0.00on par
FK Ventspils+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Liepaja ↓

FK Ventspils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FK Liepaja or draw
68%
FK Liepaja or FK Ventspils
75%
Draw or FK Ventspils
57%

Winning margin

FK Liepaja wins by 2+
21%
FK Ventspils wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FK Liepaja 1+ goals
78%
FK Liepaja 2+ goals
45%
FK Liepaja 3+ goals
20%
FK Ventspils 1+ goals
72%
FK Ventspils 2+ goals
37%
FK Ventspils 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FK Liepaja (draw refunded)
57%
FK Ventspils (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Liepaja at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.36 · 116 matches

FK Ventspils away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Liepaja attack 1.61 + FK Ventspils defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.52

FK Ventspils attack 1.23 + FK Liepaja defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FK Liepaja scores more
43%
level
25%
FK Ventspils scores more
32%

FK Liepaja at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FK Liepaja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FK Liepaja host FK Ventspils

October 23, 2021: FK Liepaja take on FK Ventspils in Virsliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FK Liepaja host FK Ventspils at Stadions Daugava.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.