FK Trayal 3–0 Timočanin: Result & Stats

FK Trayal

FT

3 – 0

Timočanin

10/1/2021

Srpska Liga - East · East - 8Stadion Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

FK Trayal67%

×Draw20%

Timočanin13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK TrayalExpected goals in this matchTimočanin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.75

FK Trayal

2.02

Timočanin

0.75

FK Trayal creates 169% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 73 away

2.38

creates per match

1.05

0.45

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

FK Trayal

2.38

Timočanin

1.05

allows per match

FK Trayal

0.45

Timočanin

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Trayal+0.00on par

Timočanin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Trayal ↓

Timočanin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

FK Trayal or draw

87%

FK Trayal or Timočanin

80%

Draw or Timočanin

33%

Winning margin

FK Trayal wins by 2+

42%

Timočanin wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

FK Trayal 1+ goals

87%

FK Trayal 2+ goals

60%

FK Trayal 3+ goals

33%

Timočanin 1+ goals

53%

Timočanin 2+ goals

17%

Timočanin 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

FK Trayal (draw refunded)

84%

Timočanin (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Trayal at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.45 · 29 matches

Timočanin away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Trayal attack 2.38 + Timočanin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.02

Timočanin attack 1.05 + FK Trayal defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

FK Trayal scores more

67%

level

20%

Timočanin scores more

13%

FK Trayal at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "FK Trayal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff