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FK Trayal vs Sindjelic Beograd — Prva Liga 2018

FK Trayal
FK Trayal
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sindjelic Beograd
Sindjelic Beograd
5/31/2020Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 27Stadion Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

FK Trayal51%
×Draw26%
Sindjelic Beograd23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Trayal
1.49
Sindjelic Beograd
0.89

FK Trayal creates 67% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 34 away

creates per match

FK Trayal
1.19
Sindjelic Beograd
0.74

allows per match

FK Trayal
1.04
Sindjelic Beograd
1.79

finishing

FK Trayal+0.00on par
Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Trayal ↓

Sindjelic Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FK Trayal or draw
77%
FK Trayal or Sindjelic Beograd
74%
Draw or Sindjelic Beograd
49%

Winning margin

FK Trayal wins by 2+
26%
Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FK Trayal 1+ goals
77%
FK Trayal 2+ goals
44%
FK Trayal 3+ goals
19%
Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals
59%
Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals
22%
Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FK Trayal (draw refunded)
69%
Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Trayal at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.04 · 106 matches

Sindjelic Beograd away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Trayal attack 1.19 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.49

Sindjelic Beograd attack 0.74 + FK Trayal defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FK Trayal scores more
51%
level
26%
Sindjelic Beograd scores more
23%

FK Trayal at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FK Trayal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Trayal vs Sindjelic Beograd

FK Trayal and Sindjelic Beograd drew 0-0 in Prva Liga on May 31, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Mladost in Kruševac.