FK Trayal 2–1 SFS Borac: Result & Stats

FK Trayal

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

SFS Borac

5/4/2024

Srpska Liga - East · East - 26Stadion Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

FK Trayal65%

×Draw21%

SFS Borac14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK TrayalExpected goals in this matchSFS Borac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.78

FK Trayal

1.98

SFS Borac

0.78

FK Trayal creates 154% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 72 away

2.38

creates per match

1.10

0.45

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

FK Trayal

2.38

SFS Borac

1.10

allows per match

FK Trayal

0.45

SFS Borac

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Trayal+0.00on par

SFS Borac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Trayal ↓

SFS Borac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

FK Trayal or draw

86%

FK Trayal or SFS Borac

79%

Draw or SFS Borac

35%

Winning margin

FK Trayal wins by 2+

40%

SFS Borac wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

FK Trayal 1+ goals

86%

FK Trayal 2+ goals

59%

FK Trayal 3+ goals

31%

SFS Borac 1+ goals

54%

SFS Borac 2+ goals

18%

SFS Borac 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

FK Trayal (draw refunded)

82%

SFS Borac (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Trayal at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.45 · 29 matches

SFS Borac away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Trayal attack 2.38 + SFS Borac defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.98

SFS Borac attack 1.10 + FK Trayal defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

FK Trayal scores more

65%

level

21%

SFS Borac scores more

14%

FK Trayal at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "FK Trayal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff