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FK Trayal vs Radnički Svilajnac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

FK Trayal
FK Trayal
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Radnički Svilajnac
Radnički Svilajnac
6/5/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 30Stadion Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

FK Trayal62%
×Draw21%
Radnički Svilajnac17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Trayal
1.96
Radnički Svilajnac
0.91

FK Trayal creates 115% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 78 away

creates per match

FK Trayal
2.38
Radnički Svilajnac
1.37

allows per match

FK Trayal
0.45
Radnički Svilajnac
1.54

finishing

FK Trayal+0.00on par
Radnički Svilajnac+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Trayal ↓

Radnički Svilajnac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FK Trayal or draw
83%
FK Trayal or Radnički Svilajnac
79%
Draw or Radnički Svilajnac
38%

Winning margin

FK Trayal wins by 2+
37%
Radnički Svilajnac wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

FK Trayal 1+ goals
86%
FK Trayal 2+ goals
58%
FK Trayal 3+ goals
31%
Radnički Svilajnac 1+ goals
60%
Radnički Svilajnac 2+ goals
23%
Radnički Svilajnac 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FK Trayal (draw refunded)
79%
Radnički Svilajnac (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Trayal at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.45 · 29 matches

Radnički Svilajnac away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.54 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Trayal attack 2.38 + Radnički Svilajnac defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.96

Radnički Svilajnac attack 1.37 + FK Trayal defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

FK Trayal scores more
62%
level
21%
Radnički Svilajnac scores more
17%

FK Trayal at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "FK Trayal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: FK Trayal 2–1 Radnički Svilajnac

FK Trayal beat Radnički Svilajnac 2-1 in Srpska Liga - East on June 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Mladost in Kruševac.