FK Trayal 0–1 Mladost Novi Sad: Result & Stats

FK Trayal

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mladost Novi Sad

9/23/2024

Prva Liga · Round 8Stadion Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

FK Trayal34%

×Draw31%

Mladost Novi Sad35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK TrayalExpected goals in this matchMladost Novi Sad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.01

FK Trayal

0.98

Mladost Novi Sad

1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 106 home / 55 away

1.19

creates per match

0.98

1.04

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

FK Trayal

1.19

Mladost Novi Sad

0.98

allows per match

FK Trayal

1.04

Mladost Novi Sad

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Trayal+0.00on par

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Trayal ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

FK Trayal or draw

65%

FK Trayal or Mladost Novi Sad

69%

Draw or Mladost Novi Sad

66%

Winning margin

FK Trayal wins by 2+

13%

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FK Trayal 1+ goals

62%

FK Trayal 2+ goals

26%

FK Trayal 3+ goals

8%

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals

64%

Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals

27%

Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FK Trayal (draw refunded)

49%

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Trayal at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.04 · 106 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.98, concedes 0.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Trayal attack 1.19 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.98

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.98 + FK Trayal defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

FK Trayal scores more

34%

level

31%

Mladost Novi Sad scores more

35%

Mladost Novi Sad at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff