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FK Trayal vs Meševo — Srpska Liga - East 2019

FK Trayal
FK Trayal
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Meševo
Meševo
8/11/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 1Stadion Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

FK Trayal69%
×Draw19%
Meševo12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Trayal
2.10
Meševo
0.74

FK Trayal creates 184% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 45 away

creates per match

FK Trayal
2.38
Meševo
1.04

allows per match

FK Trayal
0.45
Meševo
1.82

finishing

FK Trayal+0.00on par
Meševo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Trayal ↓

Meševo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FK Trayal or draw
88%
FK Trayal or Meševo
81%
Draw or Meševo
31%

Winning margin

FK Trayal wins by 2+
44%
Meševo wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

FK Trayal 1+ goals
88%
FK Trayal 2+ goals
62%
FK Trayal 3+ goals
35%
Meševo 1+ goals
52%
Meševo 2+ goals
17%
Meševo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FK Trayal (draw refunded)
85%
Meševo (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Trayal at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.45 · 29 matches

Meševo away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Trayal attack 2.38 + Meševo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.10

Meševo attack 1.04 + FK Trayal defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

FK Trayal scores more
69%
level
19%
Meševo scores more
12%

FK Trayal at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "FK Trayal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: FK Trayal 1–0 Meševo

FK Trayal beat Meševo 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on August 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Mladost in Kruševac.