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FK Trayal vs Jedinstvo Paraćin — Srpska Liga - East 2019

FK Trayal
FK Trayal
FT
3 – 0
Jedinstvo Paraćin
Jedinstvo Paraćin
9/3/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 4Stadion Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

FK Trayal67%
×Draw20%
Jedinstvo Paraćin13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Trayal
2.00
Jedinstvo Paraćin
0.74

FK Trayal creates 170% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 92 away

creates per match

FK Trayal
2.38
Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.04

allows per match

FK Trayal
0.45
Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.61

finishing

FK Trayal+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Paraćin+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Trayal ↓

Jedinstvo Paraćin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FK Trayal or draw
87%
FK Trayal or Jedinstvo Paraćin
80%
Draw or Jedinstvo Paraćin
33%

Winning margin

FK Trayal wins by 2+
42%
Jedinstvo Paraćin wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FK Trayal 1+ goals
86%
FK Trayal 2+ goals
59%
FK Trayal 3+ goals
32%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 1+ goals
52%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 2+ goals
17%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FK Trayal (draw refunded)
84%
Jedinstvo Paraćin (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Trayal at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.45 · 29 matches

Jedinstvo Paraćin away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.61 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Trayal attack 2.38 + Jedinstvo Paraćin defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.00

Jedinstvo Paraćin attack 1.04 + FK Trayal defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

FK Trayal scores more
67%
level
20%
Jedinstvo Paraćin scores more
13%

FK Trayal at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "FK Trayal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: FK Trayal 3–0 Jedinstvo Paraćin

FK Trayal beat Jedinstvo Paraćin 3-0 in Srpska Liga - East on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Mladost in Kruševac.