FK Trayal 1–0 Hajduk Veljko: Result & Stats

FK Trayal

FT

1 – 0

Hajduk Veljko

11/14/2021

Srpska Liga - East · East - 14Stadion Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FK Trayal76%

×Draw17%

Hajduk Veljko7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK TrayalExpected goals in this matchHajduk Veljko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

0.53

FK Trayal

2.22

Hajduk Veljko

0.53

FK Trayal creates 319% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 15 away

2.38

creates per match

0.60

0.45

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

FK Trayal

2.38

Hajduk Veljko

0.60

allows per match

FK Trayal

0.45

Hajduk Veljko

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Trayal+0.00on par

Hajduk Veljko+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Trayal ↓

Hajduk Veljko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

FK Trayal or draw

93%

FK Trayal or Hajduk Veljko

83%

Draw or Hajduk Veljko

24%

Winning margin

FK Trayal wins by 2+

51%

Hajduk Veljko wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

FK Trayal 1+ goals

89%

FK Trayal 2+ goals

65%

FK Trayal 3+ goals

38%

Hajduk Veljko 1+ goals

41%

Hajduk Veljko 2+ goals

10%

Hajduk Veljko 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

FK Trayal (draw refunded)

91%

Hajduk Veljko (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Trayal at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.45 · 29 matches

Hajduk Veljko away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Trayal attack 2.38 + Hajduk Veljko defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.22

Hajduk Veljko attack 0.60 + FK Trayal defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

FK Trayal scores more

76%

level

17%

Hajduk Veljko scores more

7%

FK Trayal at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "FK Trayal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff