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FK Trayal vs Budućnost Popovac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

FK Trayal
FK Trayal
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Budućnost Popovac
Budućnost Popovac
3/20/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 18Stadion Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

FK Trayal61%
×Draw22%
Budućnost Popovac18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Trayal
1.92
Budućnost Popovac
0.92

FK Trayal creates 109% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 87 away

creates per match

FK Trayal
2.38
Budućnost Popovac
1.40

allows per match

FK Trayal
0.45
Budućnost Popovac
1.45

finishing

FK Trayal+0.00on par
Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Trayal ↓

Budućnost Popovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FK Trayal or draw
82%
FK Trayal or Budućnost Popovac
78%
Draw or Budućnost Popovac
39%

Winning margin

FK Trayal wins by 2+
36%
Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FK Trayal 1+ goals
85%
FK Trayal 2+ goals
57%
FK Trayal 3+ goals
30%
Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals
60%
Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals
23%
Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FK Trayal (draw refunded)
78%
Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Trayal at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.45 · 29 matches

Budućnost Popovac away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.45 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Trayal attack 2.38 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.92

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.40 + FK Trayal defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

FK Trayal scores more
61%
level
22%
Budućnost Popovac scores more
18%

FK Trayal at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "FK Trayal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Trayal vs Budućnost Popovac

FK Trayal beat Budućnost Popovac 2-0 in Srpska Liga - East on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Mladost in Kruševac.