FK Trakai 4–3 Panevėžys II: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

FK Trakai

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Panevėžys II

A. Sveistrys 84', 59' (pen)

E. J. Zdanovic 54'

J. Usavicius 2'

R. Lazdinauskas 61'

E. Puikis 30'

A. Jusys 11'

4/6/2024

1 Lyga · Round 5Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FK Trakai68%

×Draw17%

Panevėžys II15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK TrakaiExpected goals in this matchPanevėžys II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.07

FK Trakai

2.50

Panevėžys II

1.07

FK Trakai creates 134% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 81 away

2.80

creates per match

1.47

0.67

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

FK Trakai

2.80

Panevėžys II

1.47

allows per match

FK Trakai

0.67

Panevėžys II

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Trakai+0.00on par

Panevėžys II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Trakai ↓

Panevėžys II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

FK Trakai or draw

85%

FK Trakai or Panevėžys II

83%

Draw or Panevėžys II

32%

Winning margin

FK Trakai wins by 2+

46%

Panevėžys II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

FK Trakai 1+ goals

92%

FK Trakai 2+ goals

71%

FK Trakai 3+ goals

45%

Panevėžys II 1+ goals

66%

Panevėžys II 2+ goals

29%

Panevėžys II 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FK Trakai (draw refunded)

82%

Panevėžys II (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Trakai at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Panevėžys II away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.19 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Trakai attack 2.80 + Panevėžys II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.50

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + FK Trakai defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

FK Trakai scores more

68%

level

17%

Panevėžys II scores more

15%

FK Trakai at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "FK Trakai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

J. Usavicius

9'

E. Dzinga

11'

A. Jusys

27'

R. Misiunas

30'

E. Puikis

54'

E. J. Zdanovic

55'

A. Kazakevicius

56'

D. Balsys← D. Balsys

59'

A. SveistrysPenalty

61'

R. Lazdinauskas

67'

A. Sveistrys

76'

A. Kaulinis

79'

O. Kozhevnikov← O. Kozhevnikov

79'

L. De Vega← M. Pusnys

81'

D. Balsys

82'

R. Kulbis← R. Kulbis

82'

G. Gumbaravicius← G. Gumbaravicius

82'

N. Petkus← N. Petkus

84'

A. Sveistrys

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff