FK Trakai 2–1 Jonava: Result & Stats | A Lyga

FK Trakai

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Jonava

M. Ramanauskas 65'

G. Paulauskas 52'

T. Eliošius 12'

9/3/2022

A Lyga · Round 25Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

FK Trakai58%

×Draw22%

Jonava20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK TrakaiExpected goals in this matchJonava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.10

FK Trakai

2.00

Jonava

1.10

FK Trakai creates 82% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 24 away

1.20

creates per match

0.71

1.49

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

FK Trakai

1.20

Jonava

0.71

allows per match

FK Trakai

1.49

Jonava

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Trakai+0.00on par

Jonava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Trakai ↓

Jonava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

FK Trakai or draw

80%

FK Trakai or Jonava

78%

Draw or Jonava

42%

Winning margin

FK Trakai wins by 2+

35%

Jonava wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FK Trakai 1+ goals

86%

FK Trakai 2+ goals

59%

FK Trakai 3+ goals

32%

Jonava 1+ goals

67%

Jonava 2+ goals

30%

Jonava 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

FK Trakai (draw refunded)

74%

Jonava (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Trakai at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.49 · 102 matches

Jonava away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.79 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Trakai attack 1.20 + Jonava defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.00

Jonava attack 0.71 + FK Trakai defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FK Trakai scores more

58%

level

22%

Jonava scores more

20%

FK Trakai at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FK Trakai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

T. Eliošius

46'

M. Ramanauskas← D. Rimpa

52'

56'

65'

66'

67'

V. Mashchenko← E. Glushach

76'

T. Dombrauskis← V. Borovskis

76'

M. Ganusauskas← J. Lubas

85'

M. Grigaravičius← D. Milićević

90+2'

J. Jorrin

90+4'

A. Kalermo

90+4'

R. Rodriguez

90+1'

Y. Fawzi← E. Astakhov

FK

Jonava

29

Vantomme

25

Slinkin

20

▼

Astakhov

33

Rodríguez

14

Spivakov

90

⚽

Eliošius

23

Rocys

28

▼

Glushach

10

▼

7

17

1

33

▼

90

34

2

22

19

18

▼

Eskić

17

▼

Rimpa

99

▼

Milićević

9

⚽

Paulauska

Manager: Pablo Ferreiro

46'▲M. Ramanauskas←▼D. Rimpa

66'▲D. Bilonoh←▼N. Eskić

76'▲T. Dombrauskis←▼V. Borovskis

85'▲M. Grigaravičius←▼D. Milićević

FK Trakai substitutes

16Ramanauskas11Bilonoh44Dombrauskis8Grigaravičius13Gumbaravičius97Melashenko20Kaušinis39Onah

Manager: P. Kushlyk

67'▲V. Mashchenko←▼E. Glushach

76'▲M. Ganusauskas←▼J. Lubas

90+1'▲Y. Fawzi←▼E. Astakhov

Jonava substitutes

69Mashchenko99Ganusauskas18Fawzi5Macijauskas6Motsyk8Samsonik11Čepkauskas32Angeloff35Fastov

Match Recap: FK Trakai vs Jonava

FK Trakai beat Jonava 2-1 in A Lyga on September 3, 2022.

Goals: T. Eliošius (12'), G. Paulauskas (52'), M. Ramanauskas (65').

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas in Vilnius.

FK Trakai vs Jonava — A Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: FK Trakai vs Jonava