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FK Tobol Kostanay vs Shakhter Karagandy — Cup 2019

FK Tobol Kostanay
FK Tobol Kostanay
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Shakhter Karagandy
Shakhter Karagandyadvanced
11/21/2021CupCup · Semi-finalsTobyl Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FK Tobol Kostanay45%
×Draw24%
Shakhter Karagandy31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Tobol Kostanay
1.64
Shakhter Karagandy
1.31

FK Tobol Kostanay creates 25% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

creates per match

FK Tobol Kostanay
1.60
Shakhter Karagandy
1.42

allows per match

FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20
Shakhter Karagandy
1.67

finishing

FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par
Shakhter Karagandy+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Tobol Kostanay ↓

Shakhter Karagandy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FK Tobol Kostanay or draw
69%
FK Tobol Kostanay or Shakhter Karagandy
76%
Draw or Shakhter Karagandy
55%

Winning margin

FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+
23%
Shakhter Karagandy wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals
81%
FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals
49%
FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals
23%
Shakhter Karagandy 1+ goals
73%
Shakhter Karagandy 2+ goals
38%
Shakhter Karagandy 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)
60%
Shakhter Karagandy (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Tobol Kostanay at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Shakhter Karagandy away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 1.60 + Shakhter Karagandy defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Shakhter Karagandy attack 1.42 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FK Tobol Kostanay scores more
45%
level
24%
Shakhter Karagandy scores more
31%

FK Tobol Kostanay at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FK Tobol Kostanay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Tobol Kostanay vs Shakhter Karagandy

Shakhter Karagandy beat FK Tobol Kostanay 2-0 in Cup on November 21, 2021.

The match was played at Tobyl Arena in Kostanay.