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FK Tobol Kostanay vs Okzhetpes — Premier League 2025

FK Tobol Kostanay
FK Tobol Kostanay
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Okzhetpes
Okzhetpes
L. Guerra 64'
R. Senhadji 61'
A. Tagybergen 35' (pen)
D. Borodin 74' (pen)
7/12/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Centralnyj Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

FK Tobol Kostanay55%
×Draw23%
Okzhetpes22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Tobol Kostanay
1.79
Okzhetpes
1.03

FK Tobol Kostanay creates 74% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 24 away

creates per match

FK Tobol Kostanay
1.78
Okzhetpes
1.17

allows per match

FK Tobol Kostanay
0.89
Okzhetpes
1.79

finishing

FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par
Okzhetpes+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Tobol Kostanay ↓

Okzhetpes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FK Tobol Kostanay or draw
78%
FK Tobol Kostanay or Okzhetpes
77%
Draw or Okzhetpes
45%

Winning margin

FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+
31%
Okzhetpes wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals
83%
FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals
53%
FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals
26%
Okzhetpes 1+ goals
64%
Okzhetpes 2+ goals
28%
Okzhetpes 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)
72%
Okzhetpes (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Tobol Kostanay at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.89 · 27 matches

Okzhetpes away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.79 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 1.78 + Okzhetpes defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.79

Okzhetpes attack 1.17 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FK Tobol Kostanay scores more
55%
level
23%
Okzhetpes scores more
22%

FK Tobol Kostanay at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FK Tobol Kostanay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
A. TagybergenPenalty
42'
L. Guerra← A. Talal
51'
Z. Mukhametkhanov
59'
M. Myakish← A. Cisse
61'
R. Senhadji↳ L. Guerra
62'
E. Nurgaliyev← N. Buribaev
62'
V. Sovpel← S. Mukanov
63'
T. Zhangylyshbay← S. Umarov
64'
L. Guerra↳ A. Borsic
74'
D. BorodinPenalty
74'
B. Abdumannonov← O. Omirtaev
75'
A. Marochkin← R. Senhadji
81'
U.← V. Vasiljev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Tobol Kostanay vs Okzhetpes

FK Tobol Kostanay beat Okzhetpes 3-1 in Premier League on July 12, 2026.

Goals: A. Tagybergen (35' pen), R. Senhadji (61'), L. Guerra (64'), D. Borodin (74' pen).

The match was played at Centralnyj Stadion in Kostanay.