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FK Tobol Kostanay vs Maqtaaral — Cup 2019

FK Tobol Kostanay
FK Tobol Kostanay
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Maqtaaral
Maqtaaral
7/24/2022CupCup · Group Stage - 3Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

FK Tobol Kostanay41%
×Draw24%
Maqtaaral35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Tobol Kostanay
1.62
Maqtaaral
1.46

FK Tobol Kostanay creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

creates per match

FK Tobol Kostanay
1.60
Maqtaaral
1.73

allows per match

FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20
Maqtaaral
1.64

finishing

FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par
Maqtaaral+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Tobol Kostanay ↓

Maqtaaral →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FK Tobol Kostanay or draw
65%
FK Tobol Kostanay or Maqtaaral
76%
Draw or Maqtaaral
59%

Winning margin

FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+
21%
Maqtaaral wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals
80%
FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals
48%
FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals
22%
Maqtaaral 1+ goals
77%
Maqtaaral 2+ goals
43%
Maqtaaral 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)
55%
Maqtaaral (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Tobol Kostanay at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Maqtaaral away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 1.60 + Maqtaaral defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.62

Maqtaaral attack 1.73 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FK Tobol Kostanay scores more
41%
level
24%
Maqtaaral scores more
35%

FK Tobol Kostanay at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FK Tobol Kostanay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: FK Tobol Kostanay 1–4 Maqtaaral

Maqtaaral beat FK Tobol Kostanay 4-1 in Cup on July 24, 2022.

The match was played at Ortalıq Stadion in Kostanay.