FK Tobol Kostanay 2–0 FK Aksu: Result & Stats

FK Tobol Kostanay

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FK Aksu

5/7/2022

Premier League · Round 10Tobyl Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

FK Tobol Kostanay64%

×Draw22%

FK Aksu15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Tobol KostanayExpected goals in this matchFK Aksu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.78

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.90

FK Aksu

0.78

FK Tobol Kostanay creates 144% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 26 away

1.75

creates per match

0.73

0.84

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.75

FK Aksu

0.73

allows per match

FK Tobol Kostanay

0.84

FK Aksu

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par

FK Aksu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Tobol Kostanay ↓

FK Aksu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

FK Tobol Kostanay or draw

85%

FK Tobol Kostanay or FK Aksu

78%

Draw or FK Aksu

36%

Winning margin

FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+

38%

FK Aksu wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals

85%

FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals

56%

FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals

29%

FK Aksu 1+ goals

54%

FK Aksu 2+ goals

18%

FK Aksu 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)

81%

FK Aksu (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Tobol Kostanay at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.84 · 96 matches

FK Aksu away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.04 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 1.75 + FK Aksu defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.90

FK Aksu attack 0.73 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

FK Tobol Kostanay scores more

64%

level

22%

FK Aksu scores more

15%

FK Tobol Kostanay at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FK Tobol Kostanay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff