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FK Aksu vs FK Tobol Kostanay — Premier League 2019

FK Aksu
FK Aksu
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
FK Tobol Kostanay
FK Tobol Kostanay
10/29/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

FK Aksu39%
×Draw27%
FK Tobol Kostanay34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Aksu
1.29
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 93 away

creates per match

FK Aksu
1.38
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.27

allows per match

FK Aksu
1.12
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20

finishing

FK Aksu+0.00on par
FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Aksu ↓

FK Tobol Kostanay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FK Aksu or draw
66%
FK Aksu or FK Tobol Kostanay
73%
Draw or FK Tobol Kostanay
61%

Winning margin

FK Aksu wins by 2+
17%
FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FK Aksu 1+ goals
72%
FK Aksu 2+ goals
37%
FK Aksu 3+ goals
14%
FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals
70%
FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals
34%
FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FK Aksu (draw refunded)
53%
FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Aksu at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

FK Tobol Kostanay away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.20 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Aksu attack 1.38 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 1.27 + FK Aksu defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FK Aksu scores more
39%
level
27%
FK Tobol Kostanay scores more
34%

FK Aksu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FK Aksu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Aksu vs FK Tobol Kostanay

FK Tobol Kostanay beat FK Aksu 3-0 in Premier League on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Ortalıq Stadion in Pavlodar.