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FK Svilengrad vs Yambol 1915 — Third League - Southeast 2018

FK Svilengrad
FK Svilengrad
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Yambol 1915
Yambol 1915
8/3/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 1Stadion Kolodruma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FK Svilengrad52%
×Draw21%
Yambol 191527%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Svilengrad
2.06
Yambol 1915
1.44

FK Svilengrad creates 43% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 118 away

creates per match

FK Svilengrad
2.47
Yambol 1915
1.08

allows per match

FK Svilengrad
1.79
Yambol 1915
1.66

finishing

FK Svilengrad+0.00on par
Yambol 1915+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Svilengrad ↓

Yambol 1915 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

FK Svilengrad or draw
73%
FK Svilengrad or Yambol 1915
79%
Draw or Yambol 1915
48%

Winning margin

FK Svilengrad wins by 2+
30%
Yambol 1915 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FK Svilengrad 1+ goals
87%
FK Svilengrad 2+ goals
61%
FK Svilengrad 3+ goals
34%
Yambol 1915 1+ goals
76%
Yambol 1915 2+ goals
42%
Yambol 1915 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FK Svilengrad (draw refunded)
66%
Yambol 1915 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Svilengrad at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Yambol 1915 away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.66 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Svilengrad attack 2.47 + Yambol 1915 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 2.06

Yambol 1915 attack 1.08 + FK Svilengrad defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FK Svilengrad scores more
52%
level
21%
Yambol 1915 scores more
27%

FK Svilengrad at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FK Svilengrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Svilengrad vs Yambol 1915

Yambol 1915 beat FK Svilengrad 3-0 in Third League - Southeast on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Kolodruma in Svilengrad.