FK Svilengrad 4–1 Sekirovo Rakovski: Result & Stats

FK Svilengrad

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sekirovo Rakovski

11/23/2024

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 18Stadion Kolodruma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FK Svilengrad58%

×Draw20%

Sekirovo Rakovski22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK SvilengradExpected goals in this matchSekirovo Rakovski

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.36

FK Svilengrad

2.27

Sekirovo Rakovski

1.36

FK Svilengrad creates 67% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 56 away

2.47

creates per match

0.93

1.79

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

FK Svilengrad

2.47

Sekirovo Rakovski

0.93

allows per match

FK Svilengrad

1.79

Sekirovo Rakovski

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Svilengrad+0.00on par

Sekirovo Rakovski+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Svilengrad ↓

Sekirovo Rakovski →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

FK Svilengrad or draw

78%

FK Svilengrad or Sekirovo Rakovski

80%

Draw or Sekirovo Rakovski

42%

Winning margin

FK Svilengrad wins by 2+

36%

Sekirovo Rakovski wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FK Svilengrad 1+ goals

90%

FK Svilengrad 2+ goals

66%

FK Svilengrad 3+ goals

39%

Sekirovo Rakovski 1+ goals

74%

Sekirovo Rakovski 2+ goals

39%

Sekirovo Rakovski 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FK Svilengrad (draw refunded)

72%

Sekirovo Rakovski (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Svilengrad at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Sekirovo Rakovski away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.07 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Svilengrad attack 2.47 + Sekirovo Rakovski defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.27

Sekirovo Rakovski attack 0.93 + FK Svilengrad defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FK Svilengrad scores more

58%

level

20%

Sekirovo Rakovski scores more

22%

FK Svilengrad at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FK Svilengrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff