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FK Svilengrad vs Rozova dolina — Third League - Southeast 2018

FK Svilengrad
FK Svilengrad
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Rozova dolina
Rozova dolina
10/5/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 10Stadion Kolodruma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FK Svilengrad52%
×Draw21%
Rozova dolina27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Svilengrad
2.10
Rozova dolina
1.46

FK Svilengrad creates 44% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 136 away

creates per match

FK Svilengrad
2.47
Rozova dolina
1.13

allows per match

FK Svilengrad
1.79
Rozova dolina
1.74

finishing

FK Svilengrad+0.00on par
Rozova dolina+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Svilengrad ↓

Rozova dolina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

FK Svilengrad or draw
73%
FK Svilengrad or Rozova dolina
79%
Draw or Rozova dolina
48%

Winning margin

FK Svilengrad wins by 2+
31%
Rozova dolina wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FK Svilengrad 1+ goals
88%
FK Svilengrad 2+ goals
62%
FK Svilengrad 3+ goals
35%
Rozova dolina 1+ goals
77%
Rozova dolina 2+ goals
43%
Rozova dolina 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FK Svilengrad (draw refunded)
66%
Rozova dolina (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Svilengrad at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Rozova dolina away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.74 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Svilengrad attack 2.47 + Rozova dolina defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.10

Rozova dolina attack 1.13 + FK Svilengrad defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FK Svilengrad scores more
52%
level
21%
Rozova dolina scores more
27%

FK Svilengrad at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FK Svilengrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: FK Svilengrad 3–1 Rozova dolina

FK Svilengrad beat Rozova dolina 3-1 in Third League - Southeast on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Kolodruma in Svilengrad.