FK Svilengrad 1–3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

FK Svilengrad

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

8/30/2024

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 5Stadion Kolodruma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FK Svilengrad51%

×Draw21%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK SvilengradExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Plovdiv II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.46

FK Svilengrad

2.06

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

1.46

FK Svilengrad creates 41% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 92 away

2.47

creates per match

1.14

1.79

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

FK Svilengrad

2.47

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

1.14

allows per match

FK Svilengrad

1.79

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Svilengrad+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Svilengrad ↓

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

FK Svilengrad or draw

73%

FK Svilengrad or Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

79%

Draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

49%

Winning margin

FK Svilengrad wins by 2+

30%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FK Svilengrad 1+ goals

87%

FK Svilengrad 2+ goals

61%

FK Svilengrad 3+ goals

34%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 1+ goals

77%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 2+ goals

43%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

FK Svilengrad (draw refunded)

65%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Svilengrad at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.66 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Svilengrad attack 2.47 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 2.06

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II attack 1.14 + FK Svilengrad defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FK Svilengrad scores more

51%

level

21%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II scores more

27%

FK Svilengrad at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FK Svilengrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff