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FK Svilengrad vs Levski Karlovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

FK Svilengrad
FK Svilengrad
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Levski Karlovo
Levski Karlovo
11/9/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 16Stadion Kolodruma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FK Svilengrad58%
×Draw20%
Levski Karlovo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Svilengrad
2.35
Levski Karlovo
1.42

FK Svilengrad creates 65% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 136 away

creates per match

FK Svilengrad
2.47
Levski Karlovo
1.04

allows per match

FK Svilengrad
1.79
Levski Karlovo
2.22

finishing

FK Svilengrad+0.00on par
Levski Karlovo+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Svilengrad ↓

Levski Karlovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

FK Svilengrad or draw
77%
FK Svilengrad or Levski Karlovo
80%
Draw or Levski Karlovo
42%

Winning margin

FK Svilengrad wins by 2+
36%
Levski Karlovo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FK Svilengrad 1+ goals
90%
FK Svilengrad 2+ goals
68%
FK Svilengrad 3+ goals
41%
Levski Karlovo 1+ goals
76%
Levski Karlovo 2+ goals
41%
Levski Karlovo 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FK Svilengrad (draw refunded)
72%
Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Svilengrad at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Levski Karlovo away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.22 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Svilengrad attack 2.47 + Levski Karlovo defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.35

Levski Karlovo attack 1.04 + FK Svilengrad defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FK Svilengrad scores more
58%
level
20%
Levski Karlovo scores more
23%

FK Svilengrad at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FK Svilengrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: FK Svilengrad 4–0 Levski Karlovo

FK Svilengrad beat Levski Karlovo 4-0 in Third League - Southeast on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Kolodruma in Svilengrad.