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FK Svilengrad vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas — Third League - Southeast 2018

FK Svilengrad
FK Svilengrad
FT
2 – 5
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
4/5/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 28Stadion Kolodruma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FK Svilengrad37%
×Draw22%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Svilengrad
1.71
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 99 away

creates per match

FK Svilengrad
2.47
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.82

allows per match

FK Svilengrad
1.79
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.95

finishing

FK Svilengrad+0.00on par
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Svilengrad ↓

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

FK Svilengrad or draw
59%
FK Svilengrad or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
78%
Draw or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
63%

Winning margin

FK Svilengrad wins by 2+
19%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

FK Svilengrad 1+ goals
82%
FK Svilengrad 2+ goals
51%
FK Svilengrad 3+ goals
24%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals
84%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals
54%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

FK Svilengrad (draw refunded)
47%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Svilengrad at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.95 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Svilengrad attack 2.47 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.71

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 1.82 + FK Svilengrad defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FK Svilengrad scores more
37%
level
22%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more
41%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Svilengrad vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas beat FK Svilengrad 5-2 in Third League - Southeast on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Kolodruma in Svilengrad.