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FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV vs Novi Pazar — Super Liga 2026

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Novi Pazar
Novi Pazar
8/24/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 6Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV42%
×Draw25%
Novi Pazar32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.48
Novi Pazar
1.25

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV creates 18% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 114 away

creates per match

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.32
Novi Pazar
1.07

allows per match

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.43
Novi Pazar
1.63

finishing

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV+0.00on par
Novi Pazar+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ↓

Novi Pazar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV or draw
68%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV or Novi Pazar
75%
Draw or Novi Pazar
58%

Winning margin

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV wins by 2+
21%
Novi Pazar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1+ goals
77%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 2+ goals
43%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 3+ goals
19%
Novi Pazar 1+ goals
71%
Novi Pazar 2+ goals
36%
Novi Pazar 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV (draw refunded)
57%
Novi Pazar (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.43 · 145 matches

Novi Pazar away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.63 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV attack 1.32 + Novi Pazar defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Novi Pazar attack 1.07 + FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV scores more
42%
level
25%
Novi Pazar scores more
32%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1–1 Novi Pazar

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV and Novi Pazar drew 1-1 in Super Liga on August 24, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Subotica.