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FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV vs Mladost Lucani — Super Liga 2026

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mladost Lucani
Mladost Lucani
2/18/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 21Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV44%
×Draw26%
Mladost Lucani30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.45
Mladost Lucani
1.15

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV creates 26% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 147 away

creates per match

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.32
Mladost Lucani
0.86

allows per match

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.43
Mladost Lucani
1.57

finishing

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV+0.00on par
Mladost Lucani+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ↓

Mladost Lucani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV or draw
70%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV or Mladost Lucani
74%
Draw or Mladost Lucani
56%

Winning margin

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV wins by 2+
21%
Mladost Lucani wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1+ goals
77%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 2+ goals
42%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 3+ goals
18%
Mladost Lucani 1+ goals
68%
Mladost Lucani 2+ goals
32%
Mladost Lucani 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV (draw refunded)
59%
Mladost Lucani (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.43 · 145 matches

Mladost Lucani away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV attack 1.32 + Mladost Lucani defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Mladost Lucani attack 0.86 + FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV scores more
44%
level
26%
Mladost Lucani scores more
30%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 0–1 Mladost Lucani

Mladost Lucani beat FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1-0 in Super Liga on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Subotica.