FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 0–5 Krylya Sovetov

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

0 – 5

Krylya Sovetov

6/22/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Michel Platini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV29%

×Draw20%

Krylya Sovetov51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRVExpected goals in this matchKrylya Sovetov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

2.40

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

1.81

Krylya Sovetov

2.40

Krylya Sovetov creates 33% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

1.50

creates per match

2.63

2.17

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

1.50

Krylya Sovetov

2.63

allows per match

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

2.17

Krylya Sovetov

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV+0.00on par

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ↓

Krylya Sovetov →

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3–01%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV or draw

49%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV or Krylya Sovetov

80%

Draw or Krylya Sovetov

71%

Winning margin

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV wins by 2+

15%

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1+ goals

84%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 2+ goals

54%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 3+ goals

27%

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals

91%

Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals

69%

Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV (draw refunded)

37%

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 2.63, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV attack 1.50 + Krylya Sovetov defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.81

Krylya Sovetov attack 2.63 + FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV scores more

29%

level

20%

Krylya Sovetov scores more

51%

Krylya Sovetov at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff