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FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV vs Dinamo Vranje — Super Liga 2018

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Vranje
Dinamo Vranje
9/2/2018Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 7Stadion SPC Hajduk (Kula)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV57%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Vranje19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.74
Dinamo Vranje
0.90

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV creates 93% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 19 away

creates per match

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.32
Dinamo Vranje
0.37

allows per match

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.43
Dinamo Vranje
2.16

finishing

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV+0.00on par
Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ↓

Dinamo Vranje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV or draw
81%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV or Dinamo Vranje
76%
Draw or Dinamo Vranje
43%

Winning margin

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV wins by 2+
32%
Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1+ goals
82%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 2+ goals
52%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 3+ goals
25%
Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals
59%
Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals
23%
Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV (draw refunded)
75%
Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.43 · 145 matches

Dinamo Vranje away — creates 0.37, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV attack 1.32 + Dinamo Vranje defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.74

Dinamo Vranje attack 0.37 + FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV scores more
57%
level
24%
Dinamo Vranje scores more
19%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV vs Dinamo Vranje

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV beat Dinamo Vranje 2-0 in Super Liga on September 2, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion SPC Hajduk (Kula).