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FK Spartak Tambov vs Znamya Truda — Second League - Group 3 2020

FK Spartak Tambov
FK Spartak Tambov
TBD
00:00
Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
9/13/2025Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FK Spartak Tambov31%
×Draw25%
Znamya Truda44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Spartak Tambov
1.27
Znamya Truda
1.55

Znamya Truda creates 22% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

FK Spartak Tambov
1.47
Znamya Truda
2.07

allows per match

FK Spartak Tambov
1.03
Znamya Truda
1.07

finishing

FK Spartak Tambov+0.00on par
Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Spartak Tambov ↓

Znamya Truda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FK Spartak Tambov or draw
56%
FK Spartak Tambov or Znamya Truda
75%
Draw or Znamya Truda
69%

Winning margin

FK Spartak Tambov wins by 2+
13%
Znamya Truda wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

FK Spartak Tambov 1+ goals
72%
FK Spartak Tambov 2+ goals
36%
FK Spartak Tambov 3+ goals
14%
Znamya Truda 1+ goals
79%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
46%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

FK Spartak Tambov (draw refunded)
42%
Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Spartak Tambov at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Znamya Truda away — creates 2.07, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Spartak Tambov attack 1.47 + Znamya Truda defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.27

Znamya Truda attack 2.07 + FK Spartak Tambov defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FK Spartak Tambov scores more
31%
level
25%
Znamya Truda scores more
44%

Znamya Truda at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Znamya Truda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FK Spartak Tambov face Znamya Truda (Second League - Group 3)

Second League - Group 3 returns with FK Spartak Tambov hosting Znamya Truda. Match starts September 13, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.